Local and regional models integrated with weather and climate information abstract

This report represents the deliverable D3.1 of the H2020-SESAR-CREATE project “Local and regional models integrated with weather and climate information” and describes the tools that are developed within the CREATE project in support to ATM operations. In deliverable D2.1, “Aviation impact on local environment and long term & global phenomena”, the methodology and the tools for studying the airquality on the regional and global scale were introduced. In this deliverable these tools are complemented with other modules to demonstrate how it is possible to extend their potential use for applications of interest in the aviation context.

First, we further extend the application of Lagrangian particle models for the analysis of dispersion processes at the micro-scale, taking into account the effects of the presence of obstacles/buildings, which is of great interest for airport areas (Task 3.1 of the third CREATE work package). The Lagrangian model is complemented with an emission module, which considers the actual characteristics ofaircrafts and the meteorological conditions along their 4D trajectory.

Analogously, the global-scale simulations from the SILAM Chemical Transport Model (CTM), already described in deliverable D2.1, are scaled to the smaller European domain, highlighting the importance of higher resolution simulations to assess the contribution of aviation emissions. Moreover, we investigate how much the high-altitude emission contribute to surface level concentrations, separately accounting for landing and take-off emissions (Task 3.2).

The weather forecast system is complemented with a variational data assimilation module to include observational information, different in nature and source (surface and profile observations, radar and satellite observations). This tool feeds a Decision Support System (DST), to provide detected and forecast hazard information along the flight route (Task 3.3). The assimilation tool is used in a rapid update cycle (at least launched every 1 hour), designed to produce quick, short-term, weather forecasts using the most currently available observations. The periodically updated forecasts allow to evaluate the effect of updating the weather forecasts, according to the nature, number, and availability of meteorological observations.

Finally, a framework for the evaluation of the risk associated to the different operations at the airport areas due to local climate conditions is introduced. The risk methodology is, more specifically, based on the hazard evaluation through local climate indicators tailored on the specific features of the airports location and using high-resolution climate information (Task 3.4).

The modules described in this deliverable complete the description of the “Development of a comprehensive multi-scale (from the global to micro) multi-pollutant air quality system” (AQS), one on the solutions proposed through this project.